Friday, 17 April 2020

Ya don’ say? 'Six reasons why it’s a mistake to compare countries’ coronavirus figures'

Couple of thoughts on Six reasons why it’s a mistake to compare countries... from professor Michael Baum, professor of surgery.
  1. I think we all know this. Don’t we? We newly-minted armchair virologists, we Monday morning epidemiologists. Don’t we all know that there are big problems with the data in comparing the various figures around the world?
  2. You think we’re going to stop doing it? Get real. Like we’re going to stop obsessing over politics, or Trump, or Brexit, or... you name it.  We’re not going to stop obsessing over comparative covid figures.
  3. That being the case, how about we use one that minimises the “apples and oranges” issue. Like Deaths per million population.
  4. Here’s a quote from the article, the very first point:
1. Population density: The population density of New Zealand is 46/square mile whilst the population density of the US is 94/square mile. This will obviously affect the spread of the disease.
Why not quote Hong Kong? With a population density of over 17,000 per square mile. More than 370 times New Zealand and 180 times the US. Given, as the author says, that “This will obviously affect the spread of the disease”. And yet we in Hong Kong had only one new case today and maintain the lowest death per million in the world. Why not use us as a comparison? And then ask “why”? What did we do -- what are we doing -- so well? When population density is the top factor that professor Baum considers? There are answers and they can apply elsewhere.
The author, Michael Baum, professor of surgery, no doubt means well. But his article is at once a glimpse of the obvious, yet oblivious to the obvious. Says me.