Tuesday, 7 April 2020

I’m coming out as a “Lockdown Sceptic"

I said right back on January 24, when I posted my first about what we then called the “Wuhan virus”, that I was watching a "panic in the making”, and then asked “When will it end?”, for which I got hammered. Yet we have a panic. A global hysteria. Here is QC, Supreme Court Senior Judge and historian Lord Sumption:
...anyone who has studied history will recognise here the classic symptoms of collective hysteria. Hysteria is infectious. We are working ourselves up into a lather in which we exaggerate the threat and stop asking ourselves whether the cure may be worse than the disease. [here]
What we’re doing is crashing our economies, bankrupting companies, impoverishing our people, putting our kids and grandkids in debt, all for the sake of that fact that we don’t have enough hospital beds?  It’s insanity. And not only I say this. Lord Sumption QC, ex Supreme Court judge, is greatly respected in Britain. He says “The cure is worse than the disease” a phrase that is mocked as a cliche (Kevin Williamson). But doesn’t make it wrong.

The lockdown was wrong, is wrong, remains wrong. And damaging. Because it is ruining our economies, our lives, our young people’s futures, creating the most severe downturn in all our lives, and all for an alleged benefit of keeping the numbers in ICU beds down. Really? “Protect the NHS”? What about protecting the economy? The economy is the people.
Below the fold are my spreadsheets of the difference between countries that locked down and those, like Sweden and Netherlands, which did not. Sweden and Netherlands are faring no worse.
Again, QC and Supreme Court judge Lord Sumption:
So yes this is serious and yes it's understandable that people cry out to the government. But the real question is: is this serious enough to warrant putting most of our population into house imprisonment, wrecking our economy for an indefinite period, destroying businesses that honest and hardworking people have taken years to build up, saddling future generations with debt, depression, stress, heart attacks, suicides and unbelievable distress inflicted on millions of people who are not especially vulnerable and will suffer only mild symptoms or none at all…
ADDED (8 April):
Those of us who are still not communists can be made to look heartless when we point out that the economy should not be destroyed in the process of defeating the disease. We appear to be putting money before life. No, we are suggesting that the two tend to go together. The word ‘economy’ sounds technical. In fact, in its Greek origin and its early usage in English, it meant ‘The management of a family; the government of a household’ (Johnson’s Dictionary). It is the word for how we make life in society work. Communism is the word for how we make it collapse.
ADDED (17 April): Lionel ShriverI have herd immunity 

Related:
This is what a police state looks like (Spectator, UK)
Peter Hitchens and Brendan O’Neill (YouTube)
Peter Hitchens clashes with Mike Graham (YouTube)
When will it end? (This blog)
OK, Boomer, time to stand up (This blog)

ADDED, 9 April: Below the fold my spreadsheets of how non lockdown countries, Netherlands and Sweden, are doing compared to others. In short: not too bad. And see how well we’re doing here in Hong Kong where our lockdown is not nearly as tough as others.
Sorted by overall cases, from Worldometer.
But not really the best measure which is...
... Cases per million. Netherlands and Sweden
haven't locked down. They are in the middle. So.. lockdown??
Deaths per million. Netherlands and Sweden not in
lockdown, pretty much in the middle but haven’t destroyed their economies
So, the two countries in Europe that are not doing any major lockdowns -- the Netherlands and Sweden --  are in the middle of the chart of no. of cases and deaths per million. So, what’s the point of lockdowns? Yet, somehow, that can’t be questioned. Or you “want to kill people”. No I don’t. I just don’t think that the danger to us warrants crashing the economy. Destroying companies. Ruining lives. No... Now a lockdown denier. Stop the lockdown.
ADDED (8 April): Note: Spain, Italy and France all way worse cases and deaths per million than Netherlands and Sweden, yet have been in lockdown for ages. Perhaps it’s time to look for other reasons than lockdown or no lockdown for their high figures. Hong Kong too has relatively light containment measures yet doing very well in per million figures. Or are we supposed to believe that Sweden and the Netherlands too — like China — are lying?