Stanford History professor Niall Ferguson on counter-factual history. Which he loves. “What would have happened if...?”.
If Trump had been in power after 2020, we may well not have had a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Because he was operating on the “Nixon madman theory: if they think you’re a bit crazy they will be deterred”.
Vs, the Biden signals, which were “if you take just a bit of Ukraine, that’s fine”. And “if you go further, we won’t fight, but we’ll sanction you”. Ferguson’s point: sanctions punish; they don’t deter.
The whole interview is good. Click above takes you to the bit about Trump and counterfactual history.
