Could the skirmishes over the Dioyu Islands -- the Senkakus to the Japanese -- lead to a new Sino-Japanese war?
Hugh White, an old mate from my days in the Office of National Assessments in the early 80s, says "Yes". His article was in the Sydney Morning Herald of 26 December 2012: "Caught in a bind that threatens an Asian war that nobody wants”. [WebArchive version]
Trefor Moss, today in the South China Morning Post, says "No", in his "High-stakes stand-off between Japan and China won't come to war". [pdf]
I'm inclined to find Moss' argument more persuasive. That is, we won't see war between the second and third largest economies in the world. [If pressed for time, the last three paras of Moss' piece have the nub of his argument]
Though I would think that, wouldn't I, living here in Hong Kong, part of the Motherland. Living here, we have a huge stake in the outcome being "no" to war.
So, it's fingers crossed, really.
One thing that makes me lean to Moss' argument, is the pragmatism of the Chinese leadership. My wife Jing, herself born in Beijing and living there during the benighted days of the Cultural Revolution and the Gang of Four, visits the mainland regularly on business and finds the people in leadership to be comprehensively well-educated, usually involving a stint abroad, and are laser focussed on economic development. War would rather put paid to that....
The Moss article is behind a registration wall, so I copy it below the fold, with thanks to the South China Morning Post. [it's here, if you're registered]
Hugh White, an old mate from my days in the Office of National Assessments in the early 80s, says "Yes". His article was in the Sydney Morning Herald of 26 December 2012: "Caught in a bind that threatens an Asian war that nobody wants”. [WebArchive version]
Trefor Moss, today in the South China Morning Post, says "No", in his "High-stakes stand-off between Japan and China won't come to war". [pdf]
I'm inclined to find Moss' argument more persuasive. That is, we won't see war between the second and third largest economies in the world. [If pressed for time, the last three paras of Moss' piece have the nub of his argument]
Though I would think that, wouldn't I, living here in Hong Kong, part of the Motherland. Living here, we have a huge stake in the outcome being "no" to war.
So, it's fingers crossed, really.
One thing that makes me lean to Moss' argument, is the pragmatism of the Chinese leadership. My wife Jing, herself born in Beijing and living there during the benighted days of the Cultural Revolution and the Gang of Four, visits the mainland regularly on business and finds the people in leadership to be comprehensively well-educated, usually involving a stint abroad, and are laser focussed on economic development. War would rather put paid to that....
The Moss article is behind a registration wall, so I copy it below the fold, with thanks to the South China Morning Post. [it's here, if you're registered]



