Wednesday, 29 July 2020

Fact checking the New York pandemic performance

All top ten are Democrat States. From Statista
Max Boot in the Washington Post tells us that New York flattened its curve, but Sun States are been flattened by it. Nice contradistinction. But is it true? In a word, “No”.
At least not if you follow the facts — aka the data.
First up is the chart above, which is deaths per 100,000 ranked top to bottom, about which two points:
1.  New York is at the top of the list.  Not only that. New York has the highest per capita Covid deaths in the world. Sure the curve is flattened, but only after huge spikes It’s surely a bit rich to claim this is terrific performance, when it’s really rather the polar opposite.
2.  Every state in the top ten worst performers has a Democrat Governor. Given that the states are 24 Democrat and 26 Republican, it is surely no coincidence that every single one of the worst performers is Dem. Again, it’s rich to present this as evidence of how well Democrat states are doing vs the Sunshine states, when the data show exactly the opposite.
To the extent he acknowledges New York’s high death rate, Boot excuses it, thus:
…our misfortune was primarily not of our own devising. New York City paid a heavy price for being the most dynamic and densely populated city in the country — the No. 1 travel destination for foreign travelers in North America. Covid-19 spread far and wide before anyone knew what was really happening.
About which again two points:
1. Bill De Blasio, mayor of New York, was encouraging people to come to New York. During Chinese New Year he encouraged people to go out and party. In big groups. I remember this clearly at the time, and I agreed with him. (I was in my “herd-immunity uber alles” stage). Appears I was wrong, and so was De Blasio. I’ll admit I was wrong, as were many people, scientists included. De Blasio, however, shifts the blame. To Trump, of course. When it happens that, at the time, Trump was closing borders with China and Europe, to the (then) chagrin of De Blasio and co, who said it was “racist” and “xenophobic“ — but who now have the temerity to say Trump “didn’t do enough”! That is, at the very least, breathtaking hypocrisy. Or perhaps he just doesn’t remember … (Mind, I don’t think Trump has had a good pandemic. He’s been fitful, contradictory, disengaged. Even conservatives are critical)..
2. While Boot gives New York and De Blasio a pass — “Covid-19 spread far and wide before anyone knew what was happening” — he gives the federal government no such slack. Everyone in every country has been blindsided and made some missteps at some stage during this pandemic. (Look at us here in HK!). I’m just looking for consistency, is all.
Boot appears to believe that he alone has the answer to controlling Covid. Rather odd when you see what bizarre conclusions he comes to with clear and unequivocal data above,, but hubris will have its way…
Fact is, no country, no expert, has all the answers. We know some things (schools safe to open) we don’t know lots of things. Even Dr Fauci makes mistakes. A little modesty needed here.