Saturday 14 September 2019

When you’re holding a Yellowhammer, everything looks like a problem

[Above, the alluring Julia Hartley-Brewer. It’s well worth a listen, a bit over an hour]

The UK government published the Yellowhammer document (Wayback) about the risks of a no-deal Brexit.  Remainers pounced: Brexit is a disaster! It will be chaos! We’re driving over a cliff! We’re crashing out! We’re destroying our economy! 
But if you read the document, you find:
1.  It’s remarkably short, at just four pages. That’s suspiciously short for what’s is said to be that’s an existential threat to the country.
2.  It’s a worst case.  And worst case as worst as the Remainer-philic, Brexo-phobic civil servants can make it. And still, it’s...
3.  ... Just not that scary.  While also...
4.  ... Misrepresenting key issues. (e.g. port delays)
Taking point 4, the thing most people have focused on is that Heavy Goods Vehicles are going to be held up in Dover.  Chaos!  But over and over, the French authorities at Calais Boulogne have said, that’s “La Bullshit” (and here, here and many others).  They’ve prepared and UK has prepared.
Event then, Yellowhammer says there might be a reduced flow of 40-60%. That’s worst remember.  For some months (“up to 3 months”, according to YH, but you don’t think the HGV drivers might work out the paperwork a bit more quickish than that?).  But even so, 3 months of some slight disruption that most Brits won’t even feel, is supposed to be a “disaster”??  Remember Normandy. Remember the Blitz..
Oh, also be worried, be very worried that you might not get your Christmas turkey in time. 
I’m sorry, it’s just not that scary.  Even taking its most extreme worst case.
As for the rest of the YH document, it is risible. Water and Fuel supplies will continue.  There might be some “panic buying”, says the doc, perhaps hoping there will be. Medicines will need careful attention, and even the report itself notes that mitigation measures are being taken.
When I was an intelligence analyst for the Australian government such a sloppy ill-thought out and just lazy document, would have been thrown back in our faces.
ADDED: The anti-Brexit folk seem fixated on the economic angles of Brexit, as if that’s the only reason people voted to Leave. It’s not.  
ADDED: I’ve come across the daily vids of Mahyar Touse, Iranian born Brit.  Here he is on the YH fiasco: