Monday, 24 January 2022

Fifth wave ‘could rage for months’ | SCMP

It’s like Hong Kong “experts”* haven’t read a single report from places that have had the Omicron wave. From South Africa six weeks ago; from the UK a month ago, from the US, from Europe, from Israel, from Australia. It’s as if they know nothing of these places. Which have seen Omicron spike and now plunge. In every case. 

And in all those places, while hospitalisation went up, because of sheer numbers of cases, in no place has the hospital system crashed — as most models warned.. Hospitalisations followed cases up, but at rates 70-90% below the Alpha and Delta waves.

And now, in all those places hospitalisation rates are down. For example, UK where this is a good dashboard.  (In my view more user-friendly than government dashboards such as the UKPH, the CDC, Australia and HK. It also gives SAGE-modelling scenarios vs actual outcomes).

An interview with an Israeli GP who has >2,000 patients, confirms the above. He reports a perpendicular spike in the number of cases, but most are mild to asymptomatic (some not, to be sure, and some symptoms he describes as “scary”). All children’s cases he’s had are mild to asymptomatic. Israel is one of the earliest and most vaxxed places in the world, yet cases have skyrocketed. And are now plunging, like all the others. 

Even the super-cautious WHO is recommending opening borders and easing restrictions. While we in Hong Kong actually ban flights from 8 countries including Australia. 

So what’s with us here in HK and the “Fifth wave raging for months”? Why can’t we have a spike and a plunge over a month? It’s because of our Zero Covid policy. It’s just constant whack-a-mole. Constant locking down, constant testing and tracing, constant social distancing, constant masking, constant quarantining, constant keeping borders shut. And we know the vaccines won’t be “the way out”, because even high vaccine rates don't stop infection spread, witness UK, Israel. So even with a vaccine rate of 90% it’s going to be the rinse repeat of all the above.  If we continue with ZCP. Honestly, one despairs. 


*I put “experts” in scare quotes coz they seem more in lockstep with a political agenda than the science.  They appear oblivious to the experience in the rest of the world, so how “expert” does that make them?