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I should have labelled this post “of principles and grievances”.
After 9-11, people asked “Why?” Answers were along two main lines:
1. The Principles argument: Al Qaeda attacked us “because they hate our freedoms”.They hate the west because their Islamist ideology tells them to hate the west and its freedoms.
2.,The Grievances argument: Al Qaeda attacked us because of US support for Israel, because of the suffering of their fellow Muslims, the Palestinians and because the US was “occupying” Saudi Arabia, by keeping military bases there. Thus, goes the grievances argument, if we’d only trod more carefully in the Middle East, if we’d taken more concern of their grievances, Al Qaeda would not have attacked us on 9-11.
Of course both were factors. However, even if we’d addressed the grievances, the principles argument remained. Osama bin Laden made crystal clear in his writings to the Arab world (though not to the west) that no matter what the west did to address its Middle East grievances, they would still wage war on the infidel west. The Koran made clear for him and his acolytes that there are only three ways to treat the infidels. Infidels must either: (a) submit to Islam or (b) pay a Jizya tax, or (c) be killed. Since the US would never submit to Islam nor pay any tax to Islam, clearly they had to be killed. (Ref: “The Al-Qaeda Reader: translation of original documents” by R. Ibrahim).
Which brings me to Putin’s statement above, a statement on 21 February 2022. He also makes a “principles” argument and a “grievances” argument.
The principles argument is that Ukraine is not and should never have been a separate country because it was always part of Russia. Interestingly he blames Lenin, Soviet Russia’s Jesus Christ, for the “error” of making it a separate country. An error that must be corrected, on principle. And which he, Czar Vladimir, must correct.
The grievances argument is the one we all know now: that the west didn’t abide by agreements, since the unification of Germany, not to enlarge NATO. You, the west, are putting offensive weapons right on our border, and that can’t be allowed. Ukraine possibly joining NATO, is just the last straw.
The grievances argument is clearly true. Putin, obo Russia, makes a strong case. But. And it’s a big BUT. Even if the west had not increased NATO, even if it had made clear that Ukraine would never be allowed to join, we’d still be left with the principles argument. Which is, simply “Ukraine is and always should have been, part of Russia”.
Which leaves us to think, to assume, to conclude, to suspect, to wonder if, Putin would have gone ahead with the attack on Ukraine, no matter what. Just a matter of timing. Of choosing a time when the west seemed most distracted.
For the thing about grievances arguments is that if you can get them addressed and fixed by your adversaries, so much the better. It’s icing in the cake. But even if they are addressed, until you’ve satisfied your principles argument, you’re not going to stop just because those grievances have been addressed.
