Monday, 2 May 2022

Shanghai cases down

Yes, but was it because of the Lockdowns? Or would it have happened anyway? Untestable, of course. But we can look at what happened elsewhere. Where, worldwide, it didn’t matter if there were lockdowns or not. They all performed the same. Sharp up, then sharp down.

Hong Kong was the same. Our government implemented strict NPI on 6 January. Cases peaked on 6 March. Two months later. Not the 5-10 days you’d expect if NPIs worked. And now, as NPI measures are eased, we have no increase in cases (as our “experts” were predicting, but not us). If lockdowns and cases were inversely correlated, you’d expect a jump in cases. In short, this shows, as have various studies, and me here back in May 2020, that there is no (or very little) correlation between NPIs and cases/deaths. Shall I rest my case? Or keep on being obsessed by it? Likely the latter, as I keep hoping for some sanity in lockdown nations like China and us here in Hong Kong.