Covid-19 virus update, 19 March

My spreadsheet from figures at Worldometer 

ADDED: Daily updated Timeline of the spread of Covid-19.
No hint of a break in the clouds, with another record new cases at 20,392, 9.3% increase. Crude death rate at 4.1%. Now six countries with over 1,000 new in a day: Italy, Spain, Germany, US, France, Iran. China no new recorded, as of 00:27 am GMT. Details and country charts here.  Hong Kong has spike in new cases from arrivals. So now ALL new arrivals to Hong Kong are quarantined for two weeks.
Markets hammered. Oil hits 30-year low. Asian markets just opened and it’s a sea of red.

Conspiracies theories abound. The most pernicious being that the virus was bioengineered by China or America. As the Three Stooges club each other...
The New England Journal of Medicine says.

Of course, scientists tell us that SARS-CoV-2 did not escape from a jar: RNA sequences closely resemble those of viruses that silently circulate in bats, and epidemiologic information implicates a bat-origin virus infecting unidentified animal species sold in China’s live-animal markets.”

This view is supported by The Lancet, by the American Medical Association and expert epidemiologists. In short every expert says it’s a natural virus. Nasty, but natural.
Or you could believe some random guy on Twitter. Tough choice.
A good summary of debunking the “made in China or made in America” memes is here.
And scientists prove virus is not man-made
There’s a section of Corona-spiracies at Snopes, the fact checking website. Worth checking out before blasting out unverified info. There’s an infodemic!
Daniel Pipes has a bit to say about the Usual Suspects in conspiracy theories.
Then there’s the madness of Tory Genocide. Boris is apparently allowing the elderly to die — deliberately! But these are people who voted for him. So, WTF?

News Roundup 
China helps Europe as relationship with America deteriorates 
Hong Kong Singapore safe harbours. [We’ve thought for a while now that we live in the safest city in the world!]
Global recession is certain. US unemployment could hit 20%
US stocks plunge erase gains since Trump took office 
UK concerts leave Chinese stunned
Global race for vaccine

Who do we trust for information on Covid-19 coronavirus?

From Edelman

Least trusted: journalists!

Covid-19 virus update, 17 March

My spreadsheet from figures at Worldometer
Detailed per country figures there, also linked below

Again, record new infections, 15,957, part of which due to increased testing.
Over 1,000: Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Iran, United States.  China 13, mostly imported. 

World is now in recession with depression looming if continue global lockdown. This in now the most serious crisis since World War II. How long can governments keep shovelling money into their economies? Businesses going bust. How long before governments go bust? Or print money leading to inflation? All unknown.
Lockdowns through the world. What was thought “excessive” just a week ago is now common.

Cable news is a disaster, left right and centre, ABC, BBC, CNN, FOX, CNA, SKY, CGTV.  We watch them all and it’s wall-to-wall disaster… oh dear…

A quick thought on “what has the E.U. done for me?”  Anti-virus packages announced:: Britain £350 bn, and “whatever it takes”: France €300+ bn. Germany €500 bn. Italy €200 bn. And the E.U.? A measly €30 bn. Why, it’s almost as if, in an existential crisis, the EU were useless!

[It’s 10:33 am, HKT. I look up from my iPad and see that it’s almost pitch black. Deep dark clouds overhead and the sound of looming thunder. What with the news, and all, it’s such an "end-of-times" feel. Be still my heart: “Cosmos” assures us the earth has several billion years left. But Homo sapiens?]

News Roundup:
The blame game
Bangkok lockdown 
A Trillion dollar stimulus
South China Morning Post closes its offices
Australia orders citizens not to travel abroad. Meantime Tom Hanks and his wife Rita Wilson have been released from hospital in Australia, having recovered from the virus.
Artificial intelligence as superhero

Bill Gates predicted coronavirus epidemic FIVE YEARS AGO!

I’m a big fan of Bill Gates. his big brain and his big fortune. Bill's big fortune now focusses on improving health systems around the world. He knows whereof he speaks.
In the vid above he talks about a virus outbreak, as the biggest danger to the world, more than nuclear war, and which is spookily just like the one we’re going through now.
Interesting that one of the five things he recommends towards the end -- no. 3, use of the armed forces -- is something China did to maintain order and logistics in Wuhan, but for which it was hammered in US media, “armed soldiers battering citizens” and the like. But it turns out it was critical. Maybe they’d watched Bill’s TED talk and drawn lessons. Certainly the Trump Admin didn’t.
We’re all suffering from the coronavirus now, and it’s really worth spending some of the time you have at home, “social distancing”, to look at this prescient warning.  And to wonder if we can, next time, listen rather more closely to The Bill.

How China Handled the coronavirus, vs the US

China stumbled at the beginning, Nov-Dec 2019.  Some missteps were accidental and understandable. Some were the reflexive secrecy of Leninist apparatchiks.  But when they knew what they were facing, they really stepped up.
The US, by contrast, was led by a president who as recently as month ago -- that is to say, well after the world knew that this was a new (*novel*) coronavirus, very transmissible and with a death rate orders of magnitude higher than the flu -- a president who said “it’s only fifteen in the United States, and it will soon go to zero”. That was not only ignorant -- he couldn’t possibly know that -- but also dangerous, as it delayed the response by weeks, maybe months.  And we all know now just how fast things are changing. So, he’s responsible for deaths that could have been avoided.
Trump has now got what some have described as a “Dream Team” in charge, and not before time.
China quickly ramped up testing kits. The US fumbled, handing out faulty testing kits, and even now there are not nearly enough. China built quarantine centres in quick time; the US has no plans even now for quarantine centres. China locked down early; the US is only now in lockdown. Shanghai lab shared the genome with the world on 11 January. China uses AI to control virus. The US?
In short: the US comes up short in the comparison with China. And, By the way, I’m no fan of Xi Jinping. Neither of Trump. But one has said he “bears full responsibility”. The other has said “I’m not responsible”. The only thing Trump has ever taken responsibility for was the late lamented bull market...
Here’s a Cornell Student, now in China, reflecting on how China has handled the coronavirus:

Wuhan closed the city on January 23. This day was one day before the eve of Chinese New Year. Almost all manufacturing industries stopped, and workers had left their posts.

Not only was the whole country not prepared for a pandemic, it was in a state of shut down, people are on holidays. The entire measures to combat the epidemic were implemented from a total cold start. The information about the situation was also very limited.

Covid-19 virus update, 17 March

Hong Kong already quarantining  Europe, US, Hubei

My spreadsheet from figures at Worldometer 

Yet another record number of new cases, 13,011. Over 1,000 new in Italy, France, Gemany, Spain ams Iran. Each day for last four has had one more country reporting over 1,000 new. China 23. 

Crude death rate now 3,92%, though experts reckon its more like 1-2%. Still, that’s 10 to 20 times more than the rate for the common flu. 

News Roundup

Carnage! Dow index has biggest one day drop ever
Shock! Trump doing a bad job
Shutdown! Europe closed border for one month
Idiocy! Religious practice spreads the virus
War! Of words…
Restrictions! List of countries’ clampdowns. As of 19th ALL arrivals to HK 14 days’ quarantine, except China, Macau, Taiwan.
Sensible! Kevin Rudd calls for international response
Yikes! I’m hearing that Qantas has cancelled 90% of its international flights. (CNA)

OT: democracy movement gone to the dogs

Darren Grimes: a very impressive young man

I’d never heard of Darren Grimes before, and now I have. I say more power to him. He’s a very articulate and engaging young man. Liberal, in the small “l” way, which is why he led a part of the Brexit campaign. Don’t run away! It’s 38 minutes well spent.
The Barrister mentioned, who went after Darren is Jolyon Maugham, QC. And it weren’t a fair cop, gov’.
[He looks 12. He’s 26]

Siena Hong Kong salutes Siena, Italy as it serenades its fellow quarantinees

We live in Siena, Discovery Bay. That’s Siena, the one in Italy. Where song rings out. “If you don’t laugh, you cry”, changed to “If you don’t sing you cry”....
From David Allengranti, who says:
A Siena, città alla quale sono molto legato, si sta in casa ma si canta insieme come se si fosse per la strada. Mi sono commosso.

Pictures at an insurrection

Chow in front of his painting “Hong Kong Airport 2020”
Gallery Exit, Hong Kong

Chow Chun-fai (周俊輝) does neorealist paintings, some of his earlier works being satirical takes in the social-realist posters of Maoist China. I rather like them. 

In his latest exhibition, (“against the backdrop of coronavirus“) he paints scenes of the recent protests, mostly from his photographs. 14 March to 16 May, Gallery Exit.

The final Democratic debate: Joe v Bernie

I missed it, the final debate hosted by CNN in Washington. Against “the backdrop of coronavirus”. Isn’t everything, these days, against that backdrop?
Just the two remaining survivors, two caucasian septuagenarians (yes, “pale, stale and old”), which is odd, when you consider the criticisms by Dems of Reps for doing exactly that in 2016. In fact Trump was younger than either of these two will be at inauguration and had more experience outside politics. Joe and Bernie are career politicians, that’s all they’ve ever done, so in a sense even more limited than Trump. Who remains, they assure us “an existential threat”
I’m watching a pared down CNN panel, who are deciding — telling us — that Joe is just fine! They just remembered!
He looked presidential! He looked calming! He looked in control! How come I hadn’t seen that before?
Look at the shortlist they started with. How diverse, how decimal:

Can I name them without googling? Yes I can:
Amy, Cory, Peter, Bernie, Joe, Liz, Kamala, Andy, Beto, Julian
The two in the middle are The Last Men Standing

That pic was the third debate, iirc, and there were even more who hadn’t made the debate stage.
Anyway, that’s it. It’s Joe for the Dems. My record of 100% wrong on all predictions remains intact. First up, early on, I thought Kamala a good outside bet. Later I gave Liz the nod. Finally, I thought Bernie might make it. Well I’m not alone. Just two weeks ago, Freddy Gray in the Spectator thought it was going to be a battle between Bernie and Bloomberg.
Mind you, Kamala may get the consolation prize. Joe has committed his running mate will be a woman. Candidates: Liz, Amy, Kamala. Kamala wins on intersectionality. Some mention Stacey Abrams as veep potential.
10:30 HKT: Anderson Cooper is interviewing Bernie. They violently agree: Trump is terrible!
Watching a replay of Joe droning about Medicare and I can’t get out of my mind the picture: of his dentures popping out again… cannot get that angst out of my mind. Bernie’s comment: Joe is just repeating what I’ve been saying.
Random factoid: Bernie used to rail against “millionaires and billionaires”. Then he became a millionaire himself (he owns three houses and made millions on his books). So now he rails only against “billionaires”, who, he says, “shouldn’t exist”. 

Covid-19 virus update, 16 March

Hong Kong quarantine on arrivals from United States,
Europe, UK, Ireland

My spreadsheet from figures at Worldometer 

Another record number of new cases. 12,987. Most in Italy, Spain, Germany and Iran all over one thousand. China 24. Chinese record their new cases online in real time. It’s not widely known outside China just how digitally connected they are. They use no cash, for example; everything is paid by smartphones. They have all the latest treatment protocols on Apps, so they are always up to date on the latest iteration. 

The world is going crazier by the day.  Major cities are ghost towns. No one has seen anything like it. We’re all in new territory. Empty streets. Empty airports. Empty hotels. Everyone practicing  “social distancing”. How long will it go on for?  No one knows. Surly months, not years. Hopefully…

News Roundup 

West not learning the lessons. China economy dramatic collapse. The clash of titans and need for perspective
The day the bull run ended
Our tourism in free fall down 96 percent
Americans told to hunker down
Oh dear… critic of Beijing goes missing
Virus will change our habits for years
Canada border closures

OT: China under Japanese occupation. By watercolourist Martha Sawyers

Readers comments: virus facts

On the virus facts: 

CDC Dr. Robert Redfield admitted to House Rep Harley Rounda on 11 March at the hearing that some “flu” cases in the US have later diagnosed Covid19 . [ref]

According to CDC, US had a “flu” outbreak which started in September. Between Oct to present: 34 millions Infected with 20,000 deaths.

China got accused of not being transparent but Johns Hopkins University said China is the only country that has live data feeding into the global reporting system. Others are not real time and mostly manual.
According to SCMP, the whistleblowers (an eye doctor and now a nurse) said they started to become aware of the “strange flu” problem in late December, around 27 Dec . At that time, the doctors actually involved were waiting for the lab test and reported to WHO on 31 Dec (WHO website). The genetic sequence of the virus were made available online to the world on 7 January- WHO Dr. Ryan said at press conference that to pick up the virus in a peak of flu season is almost impossible and  the speed of information on the virus genetics were great help for all  scientists involved developing treatments and vaccines. 

On 8 Jan WSJ reported that there were 59 cases of the new virus in Wuhan and no one knew much how the virus would transmit, even today, there are still a lot of unknown.. ...the Wuhan mayor was accused of covering up information and let a public event went ahead in mid Jan (when there were still a lot of unknowns about the risks of the virus).  With a lot of knowledge about the virus since then, in late Feb and early March and even up to this weekend, a lot of countries in Europe, UK and US allowed mass events to go ahead... the media has been scrutinizing China but forgetting to do a check and balance on home ground... for Europe it now looks a bit too late and in America, journalists only started to check with Trump administration on the testing kits...(Bloomberg report). China’s lockdown reduced the transmission rate by 80% but Europe missed the window opportunity to contain the virus. For America, we have not idea what’s going on in that black data box. 

WHO has been saying since mid Jan that there is a window opportunity but it is narrowing day by day... now it is closed I think...

Covid19 testing kits are still not available in the US for public so no one really knows the actual Covid19 situation in the US. The biggest black data box right now is America. 

As the biggest economy, it is worrisome situation. Unilaterally US also looked down, first with the second largest economy- China (at the time China already implemented containment measures), now with EU/UK, the third largest economic entity.. 

It is all crazy stuff...

Facts:

1. The first group of patients identified in Wuhan in Dec: 41 but 13 of them were unrelated to the seafood market;

2. Scientists still cannot find the original patient zero for the virus (trace back to date using specimens testing, - the earliest patient they identified locally is now dated 17 Nov but he is not the patient zero);

3. The virus has five strains: A, B, C, D, E based on it’s generic sequence. Wuhan patients only have C and D (later versions) but not the original (earlier strains A and B); but US patients have all five strains of the virus;

4. Timeline: the military game finished on 28 Oct, Wuhan started a peak of  “flu” in mid Nov - virus was identified in late Dec - now known Covid19; - Wuhan is densely populated, the transport hab for China  and in the temperature zone (8-9 degrees) later identified perfect for the virus to spread fastest - so it got an outbreak;

5. Meanwhile, US has a “flu outbreak” since September; between October-present: 34 million people with 20,000 deaths;

6. Italy was the first in Europe to lockdown border with China very early on. Its  “patient zero” is from Hawaii, similarly a Japanese couple was diagnosed in Hawaii as flu but tested Covid19 positive after returning to Japan. 

Also:

The place of an outbreak is not necessarily the place where the virus was originated. 

Examples:

1. H1N1 - was called “Mexican flu“ by Americans became the outbreak “started” there, but it was later identified the virus was actually originated in the US; but Mexico still gets the “name”;

2. MERS-Cov outbreak started in Saudi Arabia, but the virus was traced back to Jordan after six months scientific study;

Pompeo has been running  around the world bad mouthing  China and called the virus “Wuhan” virus and “Chinese virus”,  contradicting international practices and WHO, Trump also started call it “foreign virus” causing problems in America - these behaviors incident racism and violence. A lot of Asian got beaten up, verbally abused and one South Korean was even got pushed down to the subway track ..

Covid-19 virus update, 15 March

My spreadsheet from figures at Worldometer 

Another record number of new infections (11,008).  China zero new. Most in Italy, Spain and Iran.

News Roundup 
Trump tests negative; and US travel ban extends to Britain. Spain lockdown
Why China is pushing conspiracy theory
Face mask culture East and West
Mainland media admit one month delay in reporting coronavirus
China reopens parks and tourist attractions
Siena in Hong Kong serenades the Siena in Italy
The maths that has experts worried 

Spot the Coucal

A Greater Coucal by our fish pond

Sifting through the myths and facts about the Coronavirus

Matt Walsh is on the conservative site Daily Wire, so I’d expect him to roll with the whole “Trump is great” vibe, protect him on his Coronavirus missteps and so on. But he doesn’t.
He’s remarkably open minded and thoughtful on the whole issue, educated, informed.
Well worth watching.

“Global Research” website: source of claims US military brought virus to China

This is the website of Canadian conspiracy theorist, Michael Chossudovsky, who some people quoted last year, claiming America was funding the Hong Kong protests. (I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they were, but I’ve not seen *evidence* other than “it makes sense” and … Global Research).

Now Global Research being quoted by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian, to claim it was US military at the Military World Games that brought the virus to China. I’m all in favour of China hitting back at unfounded US criticisms, but it would be good if they relied on something more substantial than than this Canadian nutter. 

Another Foreign Ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang, when asked about Zhao‘s claim, didn’t support him.

Meantime, the earliest known case in China was November 17. The Military World Games were in Wuhan 18-27 October. Does the timeline fit? Doesn’t seem so. If there were an earlier infection at the Games and if it was an American athlete, would we know? 

Covid-19 virus update, 14 March

My spreadsheet from figures at Worldometer 

Yet another record number of new cases, 10,867, most in Italy and Spain. China only three new cases.

National Review podcast panel speaks sensibly on all matters coronavirus.
[There’s an “I don’t get it” moment around 48’, as in “why doesn’t Trump, the quintessential Showman, get what he has to do in national emergencies?”]

News Roundup
Competing conspiracy theories
South Korean measures opposite to China, but working
Trump declares national emergency
Italy deaths new record
WHO continues to urge urgent actions
Hong Kong quarantine on 26 European countries
Senior figures infected
Jack Ma donates 500,000 and 1 million test kits to US

Basil, practicing coronavirus “social distancing”

Trump hasn’t handled the virus badly. He’s handled it HORRIBLY

CNN says his statements have been “reckless, ignorant and dangerous”. That’s spot on. Minimising the dangers, claiming he has “natural ability” to understand the medical technicalities of the virus, saying that testing is happening on a wide scale and efficiently (none true).
And then giving Address to the Nation yesterday, listlessly and full of serious inexcusable errors. Nothing presidential. Nothing to give comfort.
And now he tweets about the CDC laying blame all over the place. Disgusting. I think I’ve now come down with my own virus, TDS…

This is a serious test. He’s failing it.  More: he has already completely, utterly, pathetically failed it. 

The Three Stooges

Larry, Curly and Moe

Pumpy, Trumpy and Joe. 

Pumpy has a go at China, calling it the “China virus”. Winnie the Pooh gets upset and sics his tame Troll, Joe (Zhao Lijian), on the case. Joe quotes a conspiracy website claiming America was the source of the virus and that it’s man-made. The website quotes Joe, giving his site more “credibility”. And so it goes. One “verifies” the other. The vortex of truthiness. Twitter goes bananas and it’s off and running. While Trumpy continues his own trolling. Saying it’s “China’s fault”. 

So is the virus man-made?

On one side you have three stooges, Trumpy, Pumpy and Joe.  

On the other side, saying it’s not man made, is The Lancet (Britain’s top medical journal), the New England Journal of Medicine, saying 

Of course, scientists tell us that SARS-CoV-2 did not escape from a jar: RNA sequences closely resemble those of viruses that silently circulate in bats, and epidemiologic information implicates a bat-origin virus infecting unidentified animal species sold in China’s live-animal markets.

Plus a slew of medical experts all of whom say it’s a natural pathogen. Not man made. Not an escaped bioweapon. Nasty, not nice, but natural.

And, running the “common sense ruler” over it: why would you release something that killed your own people? And… all other major viruses like Spanish flu and Ebola were also transferred by bats.

So, who to believe? Hmmmm… tough one…

Covid-19 virus update, 13 March

Another record number of new cases.  Most in Italy. China only 3 new cases. 

World going crazy…

Trump address to the nation yesterday had at least two major errors: (a) Trade with Europe is NOT being stopped; just movement of people. And (b) Insurance companies are NOT going to cover the costs of treatment, only of testing. Again, WTF?? The speech was written for him. How could they get such vitally important facts, in face of a global emergency, so disastrously wrong?? This was only his second Address to the Nation, after all. About an international emergency.

Even if Trump just read it off a Teleprompter, shouldn’t the bit about trade being cancelled have rung some alarm bells for him? Prompted him to question it? After all, he’s a businessman. That was weird, crazy and frankly inexcusable. 

Result: the Address did nothing to calm the stock markets, where it’s blood on the floor. All over the floor, everywhere, gallons and gallons of it. We are now near the levels of the Obama years. Four years of gains — wiped out. An absolute, staggering, shocking, cratering collapse. Worst since 1987. Asia has just opened. Also down. “Pure panic” the cables are saying.
Dr Fauci tells Congress: “America is failing” (WSJ).  Testing shortfalls continue.
China spokesman  on CNA saying the virus could have come from American athletes at the Military World Games held in Wuhan last October 18-27. No evidence. But maybe… imagine if true. Many Americans have been so scathing about China. Sometimes outright racist. Latest we know is earliest known patient was infected on November 17. (And doesn’t sound as though he had anything to do with the Games. Still, Patient Zero is yet to be identified).
Europe: tourism down a billion dollars a month. That’s only the beginning. Multiple airlines “on brink of bankruptcy”. (CNA).

News Roundup:
Virus hotspots: between 30 and 50 degrees North?
Russia is profiling Asians (CNA). Even though most cases are now in Europe.
What Boris can teach Donald
Epidemic “may last a year, maybe longer”.
HK - US: business as usual
Manila in lockdown. But: Does lockdown help? Maybe not
California Disneyland closes (Hong Kong Disneyland and Ocean Park already closed)
China makes 120 million masks a day

Camellia and Rose

Home grown. iPhone on wide-angle mode. In-phone edit: “Vivid Cool”
In our backyard, Discovery Bay, Hong Kong

Description

Camellia is a genus of flowering plants in the family Theaceae. They are found in eastern and southern Asia, from the Himalayas east to Japan and Indonesia. There are 100–300 described species, with some controversy over the exact number. There are also around 3,000 hybrids. Wikipedia.  ADDED: Random fact: Camellia sinensis is TEA!

Description

Description

Rose is a woody perennial flowering plant of the genus Rosa, in the family Rosaceae, or the flower it bears. There are over three hundred species and thousands of cultivars. They form a group of plants that can be erect shrubs, climbing, or trailing, with stems that are often armed with sharp prickles. Wikipedia

high

From here

Example: Look at the hate directed at Suzanne Moore, for being worried about men who say they are women, being allowed in women’s changing rooms.... No place for “honest disagreement”.

Remember it’s perfectly safe to like this cartoon! It’s not bigoted.…

Violent activists for peace prize? It’s a joke

For today, cutting and pasting does imply endorsement!
Alex Lo on the nonsense of nominating Hong Kong protesters for the Nobel Peace prize. Still, the prize has gone to all sorts of dodgy recipients over the years. Below is Alex in today’s South China Morning Post. Link at the end:

Soon after Democratic Party lawmaker Ted Hui Chi-fung confirmed that Hong Kong protesters had been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, police conducted anti-terrorist raids at multiple locations in relations to recent protest bombings.
This is not the first time such nominations have been politicised for Hong Kong. But whatever you think about the anti-government protest movement since June, it is, I think it’s fair to say, anything but peaceful.

Covid-19 virus update, 12 March

Reader asks “Is this Basil?”... our dog

My spreadsheet from figures at  Worldometer 

Wow, 6,925 new cases, 5.5% increase, though only 12 in China. Most new cases in Italy. Coronavirus now main news topic on all channels. Standard advice is now “social exclusion” which we too are also practicing.  Thinking we may not be able to go ahead with Alaska trip in May.
News Roundup:
WHO declares pandemic
Hong Kong: don’t be complacent
AMA: US missteps speed spread of coronavirus
China sends experts to Italy to help
Coronavirus and stock plunge threaten Trump re-election
Breaking (09:15): Trump names Jared Kushner his “virus adviser”. Wtf? I thought VP Pence was head of anti-virus efforts?? All travel from Europe (ex UK) to the US has been cancelled for 30 days. WSJ: Holy smoke!!*
WSJ: NBA suspends season
Bracing for wild ride in Asia stocks as Dow turns bearish
*[Added]: Trump address to the nation didn’t help. Finance Cable channels are saying he disappointed. Futures fall further.

I wonder: will China learn anything from disaster of muzzling information? I doubt it. Secrecy is in apparatchiks DNA.

Watching Joe win MI, MS and MO

In these primaries, with three results to come, Joe Biden is crushing it in Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi. I’m again watching the CNN panel share their wisdom. With Andrew Yang, Van Jones, David Axelrod and co.
One thing I don’t get is: they keep talking about Trump being “an existential threat”. That I don’t get. I get how they don’t like him. There’s much not to like. But “existential”? In response they might say “climate change”. And sure, he pulled the US out of the Paris accord. But the hard yakka, the heavy lifting on climate change solutions, is done by the private sector, not the government, and here the US has being doing better than the Paris Accord countries. Germany, for example, has rising emissions — because of government policies (kill nuclear), not despite them — while the US’ are declining, in part due to gas from fracking.
The Bernie guy [Dr Abdul el-Sayed] on the panel says that Trump is “an existential threat” to “some communities”. He doesn’t say which. So I wonder, which communities feel this “existential threat”? Usual suspects might be: Latino, LGBT, African-American, maybe? But there are “Latinos for Trump” and “African-Americans for Trump” (both growing numbers according to polls) and by some measures he’s the most pro-LGBT president for some time — his previous ambassador to Germany and now head of National Intelligence is gay. Trump has promoted LGBT rights overseas (mainly in gay-unfriendly Islamic countries). Illegal immigrants? Well, Obama deported more than Trump has. And most Americans support control of undocumented migration.
Again, I’m no Trump fan, but these are facts and Dems ignoring them only sets them up for potential defeat.
The panel agrees”the future is bleak” for Bernie. And that Biden is the best chance to beat Trump. And that the DNC has been smart at getting this result. Hmmmm…
Waiting for Joe’s victory speech. Trepidation. What will he say? The Dems have to deal head in with the increasing evidence for Joe’s incipient senility. Not “gaff-prone”. Senility.
They’re convincing themselves that Joe is a great candidate! They just remembered that Joe Biden is fine!
Existential threat! existential threat! existential threat! That’s all I’m hearing. And Joe is great! And a good debater, says Yang!
10:40 am. HKT. Joe speaking from Philadelphia and saying they’re not having rallies because of the coronavirus.
So far he’s speaking easily and fluently.  No slurs or slips. Just his wife by his side, not wife and sister, to make sure he doesn’t mix them up again…
The economy: according to Joe, it’s all terrible. (Despite record high employment and record low unemployment in all demographics. And despite first rises in real wages in decades).
And dignity, decorum, truth and leadership. He’s going to come in for a hammering on those given the Hunter Biden/Burisma nonsense. And his shifting policies during his lifetime of politics. (And only in politics),
Decency: we, the Democrats, are decent. By implication the opposition are not decent. The ‘deplorables’! That’s the way he gets “unity”.
11:02: finish. And Bernie is not going to speak. Looks like it’s curtains for him.
Panel: good talk from Joe. He’s fine with the teleprompter, they note, not so good on his feet.. He virtually ignored Bernie.
Delegate count: Joe:724 809 864. Bernie: 591 654 710. John King talks Bernie chances next week in Florida, without mentioning Bernie’s recent support of Castro, which will infuriate the large Florida Latino community. He was trashed there in 2016 by Hillary. [Update: okay, he just mentioned it. It will kill Bernie in Floroda].

Covid-19 virus update, 11 March

I sure hope Winnie the Pooh is not gilding the lily

My spreadsheet based on figures from Worldometer 

China only 24 new cases, but Italy rising sharply

Ann Althouse and ‘extreme social distancing’
Markets stage a monster rally
Hong Kong new travel restrictions
Harvard outrage: five days to leave campus
Korea number of new infections falls for fourth straight day

Plenty of toilet paper and rice! Toilet paper! People fighting over it from Australia to Zimbabwe. Even if, as Bill Maher observes, “we’re scared shitless”.

Toilet and kitchen paper at our local Wellcome supermarket

Rice to the horizon

Trailblazing Pete Buttigieg Revealed the Extent of ‘Progressive’ Homophobia - Quillette

Very interesting article. I had no idea Mayor Pete was so reviled by the intersectional gay/queer/trans Left, but I guess I shouldn't be surprised. They want someone who is “oppressed” (so they can blame the “oppressors”) and Pete clearly isn't and won’t play that game. And they want someone more Queer. Really. He wasn't effeminate enough for them. Rather than play to win, these intersectional regressive lefties play to be victims.
Good on Pete. He did well. He had to fight not only the other candidates, but his own side as well.
Meantime, the Conservatives' most damning criticism of Pete is that he's a bit robotic in debates. Nothing at all about his sexuality. Which shows how far America has come. Even Trump welcomed his candidacy and said he could vote for a gay candidate.
Those are good things. Not so good is the homophobia in parts of the Left. Not so good is the homophobia in parts of the gay community. What? Homophobia in the gay community? Yes; read the article…

A day at the Ritz, overlooking South China Sea, June 2019

Looking over the Peak on Hong Kong island from
The Ritz-Carlton Ozone Bar, 108th Floor

Green Island on the right. It’s a mark of the course on the Around the Island race, which is clockwise and you have to leave Green to starboard.

The South China Sea in the distance.
Photo taken with old friend Sally.

Covid-19 virus update, 10 March

My spreadsheet, from figures at Worldometer 

Seems like: a couple of good days of declining new cases, then…another spike. Yesterday 4,374 new cases, a record since I’ve been doing daily updates. However, China had only 19 new cases. “Continued decline”.

Discovery Bay bubble update: things fine here. No cases so far on our island of Lantau, cross fingers stays. No panic buying. Fine weather, 20-some degrees, people out about, mostly maskless.

Dow Jones collapse: ‘amplified panic’. Hong Kong market opens slightly higher (09:30).
Packed restaurants and handshakes in HK: complacency. Our health experts urge government to “get tougher”
New study says safe distance: five metres
10:00 am. Carrie Lam, C-E, is giving her weekly presser. Not much to report so far. “Need to keep vigilant, wash your hands”, etc, etc… Oh, and some flights from high risk areas like northern Italy, Korea and Iran are now banned. So I guess that’s “tougher”.
Some journos at the presser are obsessing over a policeman who allegedly hit someone with a shoe. Obsessed.
There are still “thousands” of Hongkongers in Wuhan. I did not know that.
Wuhan: ‘Gratitude education’. Pathetic.

And I wonder: is the glass half full or glass half empty? Half full = it’s over by May/June and the world goes into a V-shaped recovery. Half empty = Charybdis, the fearsome whirlpool, knock-on effects of so much damage suck us down the plug hole.
Things changing daily so it’s too hard to tell, though I continue to lean on half full. Still, there’s many many people, in the millions likely, who are suffering not from the virus, but from the economic effects of the battle against the virus. The most obvious: travel, tourism and hospitality.
If I were a pundit, I’d say it’s “fifty-fifty”. Which I’ve always thought is just not any prediction at all. It’s a cop out. Because whichever way it goes you can say you were right.
But I’m not a pundit. So I’ll go out on a limb and say the chances are that the glass is half full and we’ll have a V-shaped recovery when Covid-19 is brought under control. Let’s say… June-ish.
(In fact, we show our faith in that guess by continuing to Hold our equity portfolio.  We do have skin in the game, and would only realise our paper losses if we actually sold. So we Hold. Bring on that lovely Vee).
ADDED: (11:15): there’s a guy on CNBC, Mark Matthews, making a couple of ballsy calls. He’d be buying Oil.  He says you can buy a barrel of oil for the price of two glasses of beer (it’d have to be two premium glasses of Craft Beer, what with oil at $30 per bbl). He’d buy via an Oil ETF. He’d also be a buyer of China, now the virus is contained. China, Korea and Italy show that tough measures can work. The dilemma for other countries is: (a) take tough measures against the virus and harm the economy; or (b) don’t be tough and overwhelm the health-care system. At the end of the day, people care more for their grandmothers than their 401k, says Matthews. Good call.
His prediction; it’s over in a month. I recall my original prediction was: it’s over by end of February. Jing generously says, I’m right! About China, anyway, where it started and now appears to be on rapid decline. Cross fingers. Now for the rest of the world.