Friday 15 May 2020

From a reader in NZ

[anonymised with ***]

Hope you *** all well and happy.

Not much celebrating down here America's Cup or anything else at present.
First day out of 8 week lockdown today.
Now level 2 restrictions with some businesses restarting in limited way.

Paihia is like a ghost town. Under level 2 Kiwis can travel between regions but I doubt many will. I think until International tourism resumes it stays quiet for a long time.

Our economy has been completely broken so expect a slow grind, no V-shaped recovery that's for sure.

Government has doled out billions $ NZ [we] didn't have, poorly targeted in my opinion so how that gets serviced and repaid who knows ... a mortgage on the future.

Reserve Bank NZ now telling the trading banks to prepare for negative interest rates which maybe needed.

Although we are already heavily taxed expect tax's will need to increase further present 15% GST to 20% maybe. Income tax from 33% to maybe 50% . Capital gains tax. Death and gift duties back on the table anybody's guess with our present Government.

NZ has limited economic base without tourism so I think it's a long hard slog back up.
*** Real Estate predicted to be down 20% next 2 yrs. *** owns and operates a Public hot pool complex so Family have been badly impacted as have many others business people.

My thoughts and advice time to be conservative not a time to make any quick big bets. Reassess often as things evolve try to position as best able to.
There are going to be big winners and even bigger losers in NZ, but those categories different from before the virus.

NZ is home so we will try to stay positive and do what ever is necessary to recover from what can only be described as a complete disaster.

On a happier note want you to know [we] always think of you Jing and family and talk about you all often.
Best ****