Saturday, 16 May 2020

German civil service analysis of its handling of coronavirus

[With h/t to Toby Young ar Lockdown Sceptics]
This is a summary of an 83-page report written by a senior member of the German Ministry of the Interior. Germany has been frequently praised for its handling of the pandemic, whereas this report absolutely trashes its handling. And so, natch, the German government is trying to suppress it.
Here's a snippet:
The paper is written by a senior civil servant in the German equivalent of the Home Office ("Ministry of Internal Affairs") partly on the basis of contributions of several high-ranking scientists. At another website (Tillys Einblick)there ia detailed text demonstrating that the analysis was the assigned task of the civil servant concerned. 

The department KM 4 is responsible for the Protection of Critical Infrastructure.
The civil servant sent the report to the relevant ministries in the various federal states. He did not consult further within his ministry since delay would bring imminent danger („Gefahr in Verzug"). He has been suspended. The Ministry has dissociated itself from the paper and refused to comment on its contents.
His findings:
* serious failings in crisis management
* deficits in the framework order for pandemics
* Corona crisis proves to be a FALSE ALARM 
The paper consists of a short version (already fairly exhaustive) and a long version with appendices. 
The introduction is very analytical with explanation of general principles. It is written in excellent German.
The scope for politicians to take the right decisions has been limited due to deficits in the approach taken by internal reports, which have contained incomplete and irrelevant information.
From what can be observed of the effects and knock-on effects of COVID-19 there is no evidence, in terms of society as a whole, that it is anything other than a FALSE ALARM.
It may be supposed that at no time was there a danger for the population in excess of what is normal (the reference figures are the normal rate of dying in Germany). Statistically, the people who die of Corona are people who would die this year anyway. Within a quarter year, worldwide not more than 250,000 deaths compared with 1.5 million during the influenza outbreak 2017/18. This outcome of the analysis by KM4 has been examined for plausibility and does not contradict the data and risk assessments of the Robert-Koch Institute.
The collateral damage is meanwhile greater than any detectable benefits of the measures. The collateral damage is now gigantic. Much will become evident only later or in the more distant future.
The resilience of critical infrastructure, the veins and arteries of modern societies, is no longer a given. Our society is now vulnerable, for example, if there were a real pandemic.
The protective measures ordered by the government have meanwhile lost all purpose.
The deficits and failures of crisis management have led to incorrect information being disseminated and therefore to disinformation of the population.