Wednesday, 6 May 2020

"I can tell you that a second peak is something that is very real....

...that you need to watch out for, and you can see it in other countries,” Sir Patrick said.

That’s the Chief Science Adviser of the UK, Sir Patrick Vallance talking to MP’s yesterday.
BUT.... I really don’t get it.  Where do we see it?  Where do you see it, Sir Patrick?
I’ve got the latest figures from the Worldometer, which most people, experts included, are using.  If Sir Patrick is using some other figures, perhaps he’d share them with us.
Otherwise, I just don’t get it. Because I don’t see what he says he sees.
[ADDED: and some experts believe the ’second wave’ is a myth]
I’ve looked at all the major countries, and they’re all a hump, measuring daily new cases of coronavirus. No hint of a second wave anywhere.  Least of all in the “outlier”, Sweden, which adopted Lockdown Lite. Given the aims around the world were to “flatten the curve”, well, mission accomplished. All the curves have been well and truly flattened.
Here’s a sample of major countries, of daily new coronavirus cases, up to 5th May:

Where are then “second waves”?
Click to enlarge
Note: France looks low, but it’s only because its Y-axis goes up to 20k, whereas Sweden Y-axis is only up to 1k.  If both were the same scale, France would be a huge hump, and Sweden a molehill. Which rather gives lie to Lockdown-ophiles who say Sweden is being “irresponsible”.
All the other countries are Lockdown SuperMax, where they’ve not been allowed to go out. Here in Hong Kong we’ve gone for Lockdown Medium, closed schools and bars, but kept restaurants open and movement free. We’re doing pretty well too. 
I forgot to add UK to the above, so here they are, the figures for daily new cases of Coronavirus:
Similar to the ones above. Maybe a bit plateau-y.
Anyway, the curve is flat, no? And wasn’t that the aim?

And here’s Hong Kong:
Probably best in the world performance