Tuesday 19 April 2022

Is the sinking of Russia’s Moskva Missile Cruiser good news for Taiwan?

The Moskva. From Moscow Times
Here’s a thought. 

But first, better get the two different stories out of the way. (1) The Russians say that their flagship, the Moskva guided missile cruiser, sank because of an onboard fire. (2) The Ukrainians say they hit it with two Neptune missiles. Americans support the Ukrainian story. 

Which is true? Well… you don’t know until you know this: that Pravda, Russia’s party paper (means “Truth”…) says “we must take revenge”. Revenge for your own on-board fire?? Right. Also: photos show two awfully large holes in the port side that look awfully like missile holes. So I’m gonna go for the Ukrainian narrative this time around. (Not always, for the Fog of War is especially thick in Ukraine).

Assuming that the sinking is down to a missile strike, that two were launched and that two struck and sank the pride of Russia's Black Sea fleet, then consider the implications. The Neptune missiles are a new weapon. Two were launched at a Missile Cruiser, two landed, two sank it. The pride of the fleet. A missile cruiser.Gosh!

Consider that any war games scenario of China attacking Taiwan would involve sea-borne invasion. The threat of Neptune missiles hitting home with near 100% accuracy must be pause for PLA thought. Surely. And no doubt America is selling heaps of Neptunes to Taiwan. Not just two. I guess. 

CORRECTION: My bad. The Neptune missile is developed and built by Ukraine. So maybe Taipei should talk to Kyiv. Another reason for hoping Ukraine at least keeps Kyiv.