Tuesday, 31 March 2020

Convos-19 virus update, 31 March

Hong Kong wages to drop 20%
Van Gough ‘Spring Garden’ stolen. (Our Spring Garden)
Social distancing could save millions of lives.[*] Seattle restrictions bear fruit
But…Global food shortages?
We feel their pain. French nurses: ‘when I wake I cry
New York: Central Park is now a field hospital. Stop the blame game, already. As Great Depression 2 looms
German minister commits suicide distraught over economic damage of coronavirus
Hong Kong total: 683. Restaurants remain open but can only be half full. On streets 99% have masks. Here in DB, in parks no masks but social distancing.  In supermarkets 100% masks. Even me!

09:45 HKT: C-E Carrie Lam presser. Need to abide by quarantine orders ($HK50,000 fine if not). Three arrested for breaching. $HK 2,000 on-the-spot fines for gathering more than 4. Please stay at home. Talks of Policing challenges, strain on healthcare workers. Calls for rent reductions. Schools to continue closed till TBA. Q: Should China border be reopened?  A: No. Situation too fluid. The border control regulation will expire in early May anyway. 10:07: End.

Record deaths
[*] ADDED (2 November 2022): Below are the first paras of the article. It’s now nearly three years later. Actual deaths in 2020, worldwide were 1.9 million, that is 1/20th of the low estimate and 1/40th of the high estimate of the University College London. At the time we didn’t know, that is I didn’t know, that the UCL was the one with the models that turned out to be wildly pessimistic, but which were the main influence on the UK government and other western governments to pursue strict lockdown polices. I guess they would say in their own defence that social distancing measures were very effective. However, most of the world did not lockdown like the UK, and numbers were still 1/40th of predictions. 
Here’s the first paras of the article:
The Covid-19 pandemic could kill as many as 20 million people worldwide this year even if people take steps to reduce their social contacts, according to a mathematical model developed by researchers at Imperial College in London.
The researchers’ model indicated that if no social distancing measures were taken at all, the disease could kill as many as 40 million people worldwide but this could be halved if people cut their social meetings by 40 per cent and the elderly reduced their interactions by 60 per cent.